
Russia conducted what Ukraine characterized as the largest drone attack since the start of the war when it deployed 355 drones across multiple regions in Ukraine. Moscow explained the escalation by referring to a defensive retaliation to what they termed as Ukraine’s “terrorist attacks” on civilian infrastructure to Russia’s territorial integrity. This did not imply any de-escalation of the conflict that has caused plenty of human suffering and economic destruction. This commentary will consider the strategic context of the attack, the factors leading up to it, the likely consequences, and the international response.
Now in its third year, the Russia-Ukraine war has been characterized since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II. As the conflict has developed and fragmented, it has become an attritional war, with increasing reliance by both sides on long-range weapons, drone warfare, and psychological operations. Just days before the barrage of drones, there were reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil depots in Belgorod and energy facilities in Tatarstan. Moscow’s claims that these actions targeted civilian infrastructure were predicated on the use of Western-supplied equipment in offensive operations.
Russian officials characterized the drone attacks as proportional to the size and scope of the Ukrainian drone operations and aimed at degrading Ukraine’s military and logistical capability.
Ukraine’s air force reported intercepting 316 of the 355 drones launched by Moscow – a 90% success rate. Since Kyiv’s numbers haven’t been independently verified, similar numbers were reported in previous attacks with Ukraine’s Western-supplied air defenses including NASAMS and IRIS-T, with a similar number of interceptions.
Moscow has not disputed the scale of the attack but stated it was “targeted and justified.” Russian state media framed the strikes as necessary to “neutralize NATO-trained saboteurs” that are operating in Ukraine. Meanwhile, independent defense analysts and OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) researchers confirmed that while many of the drone targets were military-related, a number were within civilian-related objects, raising concerns about compliance with international humanitarian law.
The use of 355 drones in one night is a new tactic for Russia. Analysts note that drone swarms are effective – they are economical, hard to identify, and challenging to combat – but their effectiveness at achieving sustained military aims is unclear. The operation seems less about taking advantage of the battlefield, and more intended to be a message to Kyiv and Western allies.
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